Spot rates Q2 2026: the bounce that wasn't, and what it tells us about contract season

The brief Q1 rebound in spot rates has, by mid-May, mostly evaporated. DAT van spot is sitting at $2.18 per mile all-in, up $0.06 from the April low but down $0.11 from the March peak that prompted several large brokerages to call the bottom. Reefer is following the same shape one cycle behind. Flatbed never participated in the rebound at all.

For 3PLs running asset-light, this is a manageable cycle — contract spreads to spot are still positive on most lanes, and the carriers most exposed to spot are the ones with the weakest cost discipline anyway. For 3PLs leaning more asset, the picture is harder. Equipment financed at 2022 rates is rolling into 2026 utilization assumptions, and the math only works at sustained contract levels that the market is not currently underwriting.

The contract round that kicks off in earnest in June is starting from a softer base than carriers wanted. Brokers we talked to expect single-digit declines on most renewal lanes, low-double-digit declines on the lanes that overshot in 2022-2023, and flat-to-slightly-up on lanes where capacity has genuinely exited. The thing to watch is whether shippers push for the full reset or whether the larger carriers can hold a floor with the threat of additional capacity exit if rates fall further.

Three things to track over the next 60 days. First, fuel surcharge resets — the DOE diesel average has been remarkably stable, which is making FSC programs less of a margin lever than they were in 2022. Second, accessorial enforcement — detention, layover, and TONU are quietly tightening across the top 20 brokerages, and that’s where some of the rate compression is being clawed back. Third, capacity exits — the Q1 net-new authority data is the softest since 2019, and another two quarters at this pace will start to actually move the supply curve.

We’ll have the contract round data in early July.